MLB Matchups: Predictions, Odds & Betting Trends

Final: 4 – 1
Milwaukee Brewers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Brewers: 113-61 (64.9%) | Jacob Misiorowski (R): 25-8 (75.8%) | Market Rating: +5.7% (-126)

Rays: 106-69 (60.6%) | Drew Rasmussen (R): 22-11 (66.7%) | Market Rating: +2.1% (-109) | Home Field: +4.1% (-118)

Run line

Team Total

Total

Brewers

-139

-1.5 (+132)

o3.5 (+100)

6.0

Rays

+121

+1.5 (-155)

o2.5 (-117)

Open

Brewers

-156

-1.5 (+118)

o3.5 (-120)

6.5

Rays

+134

+1.5 (-139)

o2.5 (-125)

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Injury Report as of Oct 28, 11:42 PM ET MIL1 Questionable TB3 Out

MIL

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Jacob Misiorowski	30 G	Questionable	Misiorowski earned the win in Game 1 of the World Series against the Rays on Friday, giving up one run on four hits with three strikeouts and one walk over five innings. Listed since Oct 28

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Angel Zerpa, Brian Fitzpatrick, Quinn Priester

Player	PA/G · G	Status	Reason
Edwin Uceta	70 G ’25	Out	Uceta (shoulder) is playing catch from 75 feet, per MLB.com. Listed since Jul 23 or earlier
Gavin Lux	3.6 PA/G ’25	Out	Lux (shoulder) has resumed full baseball activity, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Listed since Jul 23 or earlier
Shane McClanahan	24 G	Out	McClanahan (forearm) won't be available to pitch during the rest of the postseason, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports. Listed since Sep 4

Not in rotation (60-day IL / season-ending, or under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched): Jacob Melton, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot

PA/G = plate appearances per game played this season (hitters). G = games pitched this season (pitchers). ’25 = last season's figure (player hasn't appeared yet this season). Players under 2.0 PA/G and fewer than 3 G pitched in both seasons, and long-term absences (60-day IL, season-ending, surgery), are listed under “Not in rotation.”
Listed since = the first report of the player's current run on the list (a report that leaves him off ends a run), read back 120 days at most; “or earlier” when the run reaches the oldest report we hold.

Notes — no active systems for this matchup.

Regression Analysis The Regression Analysis section is a strictly rule-based analysis designed to simplify and interpret what the data indicates. This section identifies potential regression signals and organizes them into a clear breakdown for each side. The goal isn't to tell you what to bet—it's to provide context.

By translating the data into plain language, this can help you understand how regression and matchup factors interact. These signals highlight tendencies, not guarantees, and are most effective when used alongside the rest of the matchup page for full context.

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Filters

Team Comparison Stats, Records and the sections tied to them follow these filters; each team's Schedule and Historical Matchups follow them when their switch is on.

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Schedules

Brewers Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
10/28/26 2026	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	-	@	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	-139	6.0
10/27/26 2026	Brewers Dustin May (R)	3	@	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	4	-119	7.5
10/26/26 2026	Brewers Robert Gasser (L)	10	@	Rays Freddy Peralta (R)	1	+100	7.0
10/24/26 2026	Brewers Logan Henderson (R)	5	vs.	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	4	-117	6.5
10/23/26 2026	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	3	vs.	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	2	-188	6.5
10/15/26 2026	Brewers Shane Drohan (L)	6	@	Dodgers Tyler Glasnow (R)	4	+132	8.0
10/14/26 2026	Brewers Robert Gasser (L)	6	@	Dodgers Blake Snell (L)	2	+153	7.0
10/12/26 2026	Brewers Logan Henderson (R)	7	vs.	Dodgers Yoshinobu Yamamoto (R)	4	+116	7.0
10/11/26 2026	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	2	vs.	Dodgers Tarik Skubal (L)	1	-104	6.0
10/07/26 2026	Brewers Robert Gasser (L)	3	@	Padres Walker Buehler (R)	1	-108	7.5
10/06/26 2026	Brewers Dustin May (R)	3	@	Padres Nick Pivetta (R)	4	+121	7.5

Away Games Avg (6 games)		5.2	-	-	2.7	+111	7.4

All Games Avg (10 games)		4.8	-	-	2.7	-100	7.1

Rays Schedule Follow global filters

Date	Team Starter	Runs		Opponent Starter	Opp Runs	Line	Total
10/28/26 2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	-	vs.	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	-	+121	6.0
10/27/26 2026	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	4	vs.	Brewers Dustin May (R)	3	+103	7.5
10/26/26 2026	Rays Freddy Peralta (R)	1	vs.	Brewers Robert Gasser (L)	10	-116	7.0
10/24/26 2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	4	@	Brewers Logan Henderson (R)	5	+102	6.5
10/23/26 2026	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	2	@	Brewers Jacob Misiorowski (R)	3	+161	6.5
10/19/26 2026	Rays Freddy Peralta (R)	7	vs.	Guardians Shawn Armstrong (R)	3	-154	7.0
10/18/26 2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	3	@	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	1	-126	6.0
10/17/26 2026	Rays Nick Martinez (R)	7	@	Guardians Shawn Armstrong (R)	3	-112	6.5
10/15/26 2026	Rays Griffin Jax (R)	2	@	Guardians Gavin Williams (R)	3	+110	6.5
10/13/26 2026	Rays Freddy Peralta (R)	3	vs.	Guardians Parker Messick (L)	1	-132	6.5
10/12/26 2026	Rays Drew Rasmussen (R)	3	vs.	Guardians Foster Griffin (L)	7	-169	6.5

Home Games Avg (5 games)		3.6	-	-	4.8	-131	6.9

All Games Avg (10 games)		3.6	-	-	3.9	-112	6.7

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Records

Pitch Mix vs. Bats

Jacob Misiorowski's mix vs. TBR bats

Jacob Misiorowski's pitches			TBR hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
4-Seam Fastball	63.6%	100.6	19.0% 2nd	29.2% 23rd	.244 17th	.300 30th	.315 29th	.501 29th	.201 29th	39.4% 29th	7.1% 29th	88.6 30th
Cutter	14.0%	95.8	16.0% 1st	27.9% 9th	.310 3rd	.313 23rd	.330 24th	.455 29th	.142 30th	32.7% 27th	5.9% 27th	85.7 28th
Slider	10.9%	91.8	27.4% 2nd	34.1% 18th	.224 14th	.300 27th	.292 15th	.484 27th	.184 26th	31.4% 29th	7.0% 26th	84.6 30th
Curveball	10.5%	88.0	23.2% 1st	27.1% 7th	.237 4th	.340 5th	.283 9th	.478 24th	.138 27th	33.6% 20th	4.1% 30th	84.4 29th
Changeup	0.9%	92.5	26.9% 2nd	35.5% 15th	.258 1st	.328 5th	.293 3rd	.462 22nd	.134 25th	28.6% 27th	4.1% 28th	84.8 24th
Sinker	0.1%	100.6	9.0% 1st	27.5% 24th	.290 8th	.301 30th	.312 30th	.419 30th	.118 30th	37.8% 30th	4.4% 30th	86.7 30th
Whole mix, by usage			20.0% 1st	29.4% 18th	.250 12th	.306 30th	.311 28th	.490 29th	.184 29th	36.9% 29th	6.6% 29th	87.3 30th

2026 season totals. Usage and Velo are Jacob Misiorowski's; every other column is TBR's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is TBR's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Drew Rasmussen's mix vs. MIL bats

Drew Rasmussen's pitches			MIL hitters vs. that pitch type, from all pitchers
Pitch	Usage	Velo	Whiff%	Chase%	BA	xBA	xwOBA	xSLG	xISO	Hard%	Barrel%	Avg EV
Cutter	28.9%	89.9	21.9% 12th	30.4% 22nd	.324 2nd	.330 10th	.350 14th	.565 10th	.235 11th	38.2% 13th	9.8% 9th	87.1 19th
4-Seam Fastball	28.4%	95.9	21.0% 11th	26.6% 9th	.272 2nd	.351 4th	.344 9th	.586 18th	.235 24th	47.4% 6th	8.9% 24th	90.2 18th
Sinker	23.2%	95.2	12.4% 9th	22.7% 1st	.289 10th	.339 10th	.354 16th	.495 20th	.156 24th	41.6% 22nd	5.4% 23rd	89.2 12th
Changeup	14.3%	89.5	30.2% 9th	30.1% 1st	.229 9th	.302 24th	.275 17th	.425 29th	.123 28th	31.0% 23rd	3.4% 30th	84.4 28th
Curveball	3.1%	80.2	27.8% 10th	24.6% 1st	.246 2nd	.328 10th	.275 19th	.498 16th	.170 22nd	32.5% 24th	7.8% 13th	85.4 25th
Sweeper	2.2%	84.5	27.5% 3rd	27.0% 2nd	.207 14th	.313 8th	.277 8th	.558 4th	.245 3rd	30.7% 13th	9.8% 6th	86.3 7th
Whole mix, by usage			20.9% 8th	27.2% 6th	.283 1st	.334 6th	.335 13th	.533 19th	.199 23rd	40.2% 12th	7.5% 22nd	88.0 21st

2026 season totals. Usage and Velo are Drew Rasmussen's; every other column is MIL's active hitters against that pitch type from every pitcher, not against him. (n) is MIL's place among the 30 clubs: 1 and green hit the pitch best, red is good for the pitcher.

Starting Pitchers Recent Performance

Jacob Misiorowski Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
10/23	MIL [ 3 ]	TBR [ 2 ]	-188	6.5	5	79	3	1	4	0	1	1	Nick Martinez (R)
10/11	MIL [ 2 ]	LAD [ 1 ]	-104	6	4.33	94	5	3	5	0	1	1	Tarik Skubal (L)
10/3	MIL [ 3 ]	SDP [ 2 ]	-206	7	4	88	6	1	4	0	2	2	Robbie Ray (L)
9/27	MIL [ 6 ]	STL [ 4 ]	-207	7	5.33	68	5	2	2	0	0	0	Andre Pallante (R)
9/20	BAL [ 0 ]	MIL [ 3 ]	-212	7.5	3	44	4	0	1	0	0	0	Brandon Young (R)
Averages:					4.33	74.6	4.6	1.4	3.2	0	0.8	0.8

Drew Rasmussen Last 5 Starts

	H	A	Line	Total	IP	NP	K	BB	Hits	HR	ER	Runs	Opp Starter
10/24	MIL [ 5 ]	TBR [ 4 ]	+102	6.5	3.67	89	4	2	6	0	3	3	Logan Henderson (R)
10/18	CLE [ 1 ]	TBR [ 3 ]	-126	6	7	95	6	1	4	0	1	1	Parker Messick (L)
10/12	TBR [ 3 ]	CLE [ 7 ]	-169	6.5	6	91	7	0	8	2	2	2	Foster Griffin (L)
10/3	TBR [ 1 ]	NYY [ 0 ]	-137	7	8	101	10	2	1	0	0	0	Gerrit Cole (R)
9/22	NYY [ 1 ]	TBR [ 6 ]	+108	6	6.67	114	11	3	1	0	1	1	Max Fried (L)
Averages:					6.27	98	7.6	1.6	4	0.4	1.4	1.4

Bullpen Usage (Last 3 Days)

MIL Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	10/25	10/26	10/27	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Antonio Senzatela ⚠	·	2.0 (26)	0.2 (18)	2	2.2	44	2	1	0	0
Aaron Ashby	·	·	2.1 (31)	1	2.1	31	3	0	0	0
Abner Uribe	·	·	2.0 (19)	1	2.0	19	2	0	1	0
DL Hall	·	·	1.2 (24)	1	1.2	24	0	0	1	0
Brandon Woodruff	·	1.0 (18)	·	1	1.0	18	1	0	2	1
JoJo Romero	·	·	1.0 (11)	1	1.0	11	0	0	0	0
Trevor Megill	·	·	0.1 (5)	1	0.1	5	1	0	0	0
Shane Drohan	·	·	0.0 (15)	1	0.0	15	0	0	4	1
Team Totals (8 arms used):				9	11.0	167	9	1	8	2

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

TBR Bullpen — Last 3 Days

Pitcher	10/25	10/26	10/27	App	IP	NP	K	BB	H	ER
Tyler Wells ⚠	·	1.0 (16)	1.2 (24)	2	2.2	40	2	0	0	0
Bryan Baker	·	·	2.0 (21)	1	2.0	21	0	0	1	0
Nick Martinez	·	·	2.0 (33)	1	2.0	33	1	0	1	0
Cole Sulser	·	1.1 (32)	·	1	1.1	32	1	0	4	1
Garrett Cleavinger	·	1.0 (11)	·	1	1.0	11	1	0	0	0
Ian Seymour	·	·	1.0 (32)	1	1.0	32	1	0	2	1
Kevin Kelly	·	·	1.0 (12)	1	1.0	12	1	1	0	0
Steven Matz	·	1.0 (17)	·	1	1.0	17	0	0	1	0
Cam Booser ⚠	·	0.0 (12)	0.1 (9)	2	0.1	21	1	1	4	4
Team Totals (9 arms used):				11	12.1	219	8	2	13	6

A day reads innings (pitches). NP = number of pitches over the window.

⚠ = pitched on consecutive days within window (fatigue signal).

Notable Trends

The Rays are 70% (7-3) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Brewers are 84.6% (11-2) (L30 days) on the moneyline

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Rays (Home)

The Rays are 60% (105-70) on the moneyline

The Rays are 70% (7-3) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Rays are 52.1% (88-81-6) to the under

The Rays are 60% (6-4) to the under as a home dog

The Rays are 53.8% (7-6) (L30 days) on the moneyline

The Rays are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) on the moneyline as a home dog

The Rays are 50% (6-6-1) (L30 days) to the over

The Rays are 66.7% (2-1) (L30 days) to the under as a home dog

Brewers (Away)

The Brewers are 65.1% (114-61) on the moneyline

The Brewers are 62.7% (32-19) on the moneyline as an away fav

The Brewers are 53.8% (91-78-5) to the under

The Brewers are 62% (31-19-1) to the under as an away fav